Vaccine Rollout and Implications on Perception and Reality of the Recovery Mercer Bradley


As millions of doses of the coronavirus vaccine continue to come into Canada, people are beginning to see a light at the end of a very long tunnel. After more than a year of shutdowns, social distancing, remote work, and uncertainty, residents are feeling hopeful that things can slowly begin shifting to a more recognizable way of life. As progress continues to be made, there is speculation on when some sort of normalcy may begin to be felt during the recovery.

Based on the COVID-19 vaccine rollout, here are some things Canadians may be able to expect during the economic recovery.

Millions of Vaccines Are Coming In

As of March, Canada has approved COVID-19 vaccines from AstraZeneca, Pfizer-BioNTech, and Moderna. Millions of vaccines have already been delivered to the country. The vaccine distribution taskforce stated that 444,000 more Pfizer doses were expected weekly through March and 769,000 weekly in the first half of April. By mid-May, Canada should receive an additional 2 million vaccines from the Serum Institute of India. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau believes that any Canadian who wants a vaccine will get one by September.

An Economic Boom Is Coming

Meny Grauman, an analyst at Scotiabank, believes that Canada is nearing a post-pandemic economic boom. In fact, the International Monetary Fund raised its GDP growth forecast for Canada to 4.4% for 2021, compared to a 5.4% decline the previous year. Additionally, consumer card spending began improving the first week of February. Plus, as of October, 80% of the 3 million jobs lost in March and April had been recouped in Canada.

Provinces Hit the Hardest Should Have High Growth

Economic growth is expected to be higher in provinces that were hit hardest by the economic fallout in 2020. Because Ontario had the strictest health restrictions, it could experience Canada’s strongest economic growth in 2021. New investment in the automotive manufacturing sector and a resurgence in immigration should revitalize the economy, especially in the Greater Toronto Area, with an expected growth of 4.5%. British Columbia and Quebec are expected to have growth rates of approximately 4%. Alberta’s growth is expected to be below 3.5%, given the low level of investment anticipated in the oil sector. Saskatchewan should expect a growth of 4%. Manitoba most likely will experience economic growth slightly below 3.5%. The Atlantic provinces may experience a 2.0% to 2.5% growth, depending on potential travel restrictions that may limit inbound tourism.

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